Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that split the country and unleashed disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an highly split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in academia but scarcely any politicians or advocates are willing to participate with the basics. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unity or the status quo. Each authors two essays that strive for neutrality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and societal data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they support unity but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has has important lessons to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster must engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
